Again, You May Want to Enjoy the Holidays

 Man, I was looking at the employment numbers....

1.1 million have lost their jobs in 2025. In America alone. ( I know in places like Germany, companies like Volkswagen have laid off 10s of thousands of people.)

This includes small businesses laying-off 120,000.  

If you are wanting lumber and have extra dough, you may want to buy now. Lumber demand is at an all time low. Prices and futures are way down. 

Sawmills are either slowing production, stopping extra shifts, or they are shuttering all together for now. 

Nationwide, new car sales are down 10-14%. 

Used car sales down 20-25%.

People are keeping their old beater and not getting new vehicles.  

The number of people looking for new or used cars on Google is way down.  

I was reading that many companies plan to lay-off people within the next month. Merry Christmas. ( Anytime a business talks about being a "family" do not believe them. I know in the school business they always are saying this is like a family.....Yeah, like I want to see these people at Christmas. Then again, except for immediate family, about 75% of my family I do not see for Christmas, I see my in-laws for the holidays more than family, but there, I am forced to go.....) 

Richard Cantillion , a French-Irish economist in the 1700s described the economy we are having today.. ( He was born in County Kerry, Ireland, if you ever have a chance to go to Ireland, screw Dublin, go to Cork, go to the Southwest and drive to the Northwest.  You can thank me later.)

The Cantillion Effect describes a what he calls a "K" shaped economy. 

The top 10-15% of the people are doing well, ie. the rich, they are selling, buying homes, cars etc., while 85-90% of the rest of the people are struggling.  The wages of the average person just is not keeping up with inflation. That 85-90% is falling farther down the line. 

Most Americans can't afford houses. Even with a 20% down, the interest payments alone people can't afford. ( This area always a little different. Recessions effect us late and are slow to leave after everyone else has recovered. Plus, the demand here is not like Austin or Houston or Seattle, etc.)

The working class, the 85-90% is falling down the line while the Asset Class is doing much better, stocks, invests are up and we will talk about why in another blog. 

The people with rental properties, the stock paying dividends, other business investments paying are the class able to make purchases right now.  

Also, look out for Gresham's Law coming into effect.....

We discussed it in economics. advisor to kings and queens of England in the 1500s when money had silver removed and the monarchy wondered why people were hoarding the old coins while spending the new one, Gresham described it as ....."Bad money drives out good"

This is what is happening to both metals and crypto.( Yes, crypto is down, but I've seen it down before, much worse than now....Hang on, don't panic....) people are hoarding the metals and the crypto. and real estate and are spending the American Dollar, the British Pound, the Euro....etc......The dollar, euro, pound are all fiat money. 

Fiat money has worth only because we say it is worth something of value.  And fiat's value is less and less with each passing day. 

So, where we going here Kerry, Kerry Don, Mr. Thomas, Govteach? 

From where I am sitting 2026 looks rough. The economics math, ain't mathing. And getting worse by the day. 

And this looks worldwide. Europe is in sad shape. The UK is bad off. China is having economic troubles.

As I wrote earlier, you may want to  enjoy this Christmas a little more than normal. I don't know what Christmas 2026 is going to look like.