Panic!?!?!?!

 Panic? 

I had to quit watching the news this weekend and a former Current Events Coach has a hard time stopping. ( ( Fuck you former Buna Supt. of of Schools who didn't want the academic "sponsors" called coaches....It's what the UIL calls us...Look at the Book of Rules....)

I consume a lot of stuff from the rest of the world, sorry but we're in a global society whether we want to believe it or not, stop fooling yourself that we're about to start making toasters in Mississippi.....

Hell, the British were debating whether to visit the U.S. this summer vacation or not......Seriously. 

Fuck up foreign tourism?  It's bigger than you think. They don't come to Beaumont-Orange-Buna....Hell, we are from here and often wonder why? And on the other side of the coin, where else would we go? Seriously? I was born here, I'll die here. 

The markets in Hong Kong, Japan crashed today....and while the American futures have recovered some...it still looks awful...

All this said, relax....Calm down. 

Yes, right now it looks bad, but this has not played out yet. 

My grandparents lived through the Great Depression of the 1930s, World War 2....One set had 11 kids.....The other set 5.... 

My grandparent's grandchildren are pretty soft compared to them. Seriously. 

Things like recessions, depressions happen. Has since the founding of the republic. 

Calm down folks, don't check your 401k every 2 minutes and I know that's hard to do. 

Normally I watch the Bloomberg Business Podcast from 6-9am with Tom Keen to see how messed up Tom's bow tie is this morning, but today...Nope, not going there. 

There might be a time to panic, but we ain't there quite yet....

 Today folks, listen to some music, dance in the kitchen, take a break......Life is too short. ( Then again, I can see the end, and it's closer than many of you know...More and more I wonder what the afterlife is really like....) Enjoy life, it's shorter than you think....

 

Weird Recession/Depression Indicators....

 These weird recession/depression indicators have been around for years, and I do not know it I agree with all of them....

- Snack Index- People are buying fewer chips, candy, junk food at the stores. Already I have spoken to someone in the know who told me that they are selling fewer junk food options at 7-11 type stores. Deliveries of these products are down.

- Smaller alcohol bottles. People are no longer buying as much alcohol especially in the fifth and 1.75lt. sizes. They are buying more pints, and even smaller airliner size bottles. 

-Lipstick sales. Ladies buy more lipstick during a recession. There is a psychological element in it. Can't buy everything, but can get a tube of lipstick. Makes them feel better.

- Underwear sales- Men especially put off buying new underwear. I know that included me. I am holding off on getting new boxers. I figured mine are good at least another 6-8 months. I know, TMI. This doesn't always effect lady buyers. 

- Hemline Index. This comes from the Great Depression. The worse the economy, the longer skirts get....I don't know. Ladies don't wear skirts like they once did, they nearly all wear pants. Heck, I am old enough to remember when girls had to wear skirts to public school, and it was literally called a "sin" when ladies wore pants to church....

In recession time periods in which I taught, when high school girls wore skirts, they were short, too short, and towards the end of my tenure, there was a lack of under-attire by some female students. But, we've talked about that and how that was another reason I retired. Literally there was nothing I could do about it. And if I was to send a kid to the office, what would they do, tell them to " Pull up your skirt to see if I can see your vagina? "  And then, word would get out who sent them, and I can just hear the parents coming to complain.... 

-  Cardboard Box index- Fewer cardboard boxes needed for shipping goods. That's just common sense. 

- Diaper Rash Index- Parents buying fewer Pampers, etc, let the diapers stay on longer causing diaper rash and more people buying ointment for diaper rash. 

- Champagne Index- People buy less of the bubbly wine...Just common sense.

- Stripper Index- Few men having the money to spend at the strip clubs, and few girls go into or stay in that job. 

- Work Ice Box- More people bringing lunch to work. Fewer going out to McDonald's, Chilies. etc.  

Just stuff to look for. Perhaps correct, perhaps, not....

 

The Elephant in the Room.....

 I am proud of myself I could spell elephant correctly.....Now, if I can just finally spell especially right. 

So, how much will tariff effect the car industry? 

Yeah, more and more people are asking me to write on this.....

Here are the cars assembled in Mexico and Canada and sold in the U.S. 

CANADA-

• Honda CR-V: Made in Indiana, Ohio, and Alliston, Ontario.
• Toyota RAV4: In addition to other factories, this popular SUV is made in Woodstock and Cambridge, Ontario.
• Lexus NX: In addition to two locations in Japan, the NX is made in Cambridge.
• Lexus RX: Made in Cambridge, Ontario.
• Chrysler Pacifica and Voyager: Made in Windsor, Ontario.
• Dodge Charger Daytona: Stellantis Windsor Assembly Plant in Windsor, Ontario.
• Chevrolet Silverado: Made in three US plants as well as in Oshawa, Ontario, and Silao, Mexico.
• Ford Mustang GTD: Finished in Markham, Ontario.
  

 

MEXICO-

• Chevrolet Silverado: Some made in Silao, including the 1500 model.
• Ford Maverick: Made in Hermosillo.
• Ford Bronco Sport: Made in Hermosillo.
• Ford Mustang Mach-E: Made in Cuautitlan.
• Audi Q5: Made in San José Chiapa.
• BMW 2-Series: Made in San Luis Potosi.
• BMW 3-Series: Made in San Luis Potosi.
• Chevrolet Equinox, Equinox EV: Some are made in San Luis Potosi and Ramos Arizpe, others in Ingersoll, Ontario, Canada.
• GMC Terrain: Made in San Luis Potosí. The first gen was built in Ingersoll, Ontario.
• Ram 1500 and 2500: The Ram 1500 is made at the Sterling Heights Assembly Plant in Michigan and at the Saltillo Truck Assembly Plant in Mexico, while the Ram 2500 is made in Saltillo.
• VW Jetta, Taos and Tiguan are made in Puebla, Mexico
• Honda Fit and HR-V are made in Celaya, Mexico

That's just Mexico and Canada...... Not the rest of the world.

This is just assembled.....If a 25% tariff is imposed, prices could increase by as much as $12,000 for some models, or as little as $4,000 for others, in both cases a cost that will almost certainly be passed on to U.S. buyers.

This includes parts in assembly.

Thousands of parts are used to make a vehicle....

They were talking on the Wall Street Journal how many times parts cross the border in the process of being made. For example. There is transmission company in Ontario, Canada that has a building process in which the manufacturing of the transmission is shipped back and forth between Ontario, in Canada to Ohio, to Illinois, back to Canada, to Indiana, back to Canada, each plant had a specialized process in the making of the transmission, and according to the Wall Street Journal, every time it is shipped across the border, a tariff would be applied. That's before it is sent to America to be put on the vehicle. 

That's just one part....

The car parts come from all overseas

GM Parts-

These are just a few, some made in the USA, but others..... Nothing, parts, is made in total in any country.

Wheels/Rims & Wheels- Mexico. Bulgaria. Hell, I'd want my rims made in Mexico. That probably sounds racist. But...true.

Tires- Korea

Engines- Mexico, Argentina

Brake Assembly- Romania

Transmissions- Canada, Mexico, China

Electronics- Japan, Taiwan, India,  China.....And others.....Most cars have electronics, computers, parts from all over the world. 

Already  a car maker has said that to move everything back to America is impossible. It would be like move the state of Maine, everyone, everything, land and all to Wyoming. And even then, it probably won't be enough....Far from it.  

I am sorry, but China is going to wind up being the world's large car maker. And I've ridden in Chinese vehicles over there. They are not junk like you think they are. They've come a long ways. They are building cars to compete with Honda and Mazda.My son's father in law drives a Mazda equivalent sedan....It's 12 years old, and has 140,000 miles on it. I was surprised at the quality....No, cannot but them here. And GM really want(ed) to tap the Chinese market, but now....And the Chinese love Buicks. It is why Buick still exists. Certainly not for the U.S. market.

That's just to name a few parts. In one vehicle, the parts might be from 50 different countries. 

I don't know. People can't afford cars now. And if you can, well, good for you, a lot of people just cannot. 

 

 

 

 

The Economists are Sounding Warning Bells.....

I watch and read a lot of economists, most of these guys are not " Gloom and Doom" people. 

Most are very conservative in what the U.S. Economy is doing.... 

In the last few months, they have changed their tunes, and it isn't just because of the present administration. They were already very concerned in the last two quarters of last year concerning Americans and the US Economy. 

One I listen to, read, is talking about " Economic Chaos." 

And we are not in a poor country compared to the rest of the world. But, we can face changes and how we live. 

It is time to be conservative with your lifestyle. 

It is time to seriously pay off debt. Don't be buying stuff just because it is a shiny new toy. It might be time to as I said, pay off debt. 

Might want to wait on that new car. Wait on buying that new house. If you buy a new car, you might want to look at a lower trim level. 

Say what you want, wages in this country have not increased. Prices have. 

I am going to talk about tariffs in coming blogs. And while some are you are saying the that it is good that manufacturing might be coming back to America, I don't think you know how long it'll take to come back. Literally, decades. It took decades to get us here, and decades to get back. 

America at this people is a consumer nation. Other nations send us their products and we send them a paper promise, and those nations are good with it. Literally, happy with it. 

We will at some point talk about the Cantillion Theory....Richard Cantillion, 1680s to 1734, Irish/British Economist-

Cantillon held that market prices are not immediately decided by intrinsic value, but are derived from supply and demand. He considered market prices to be derived by comparing supply, the quantity of a particular good in a particular market, to demand, the quantity of money brought to be exchanged.

 

I know Subaru has sent memos to dealers not to take orders on their cars.

 

And most Subaru dealerships have almost sold out of Outbacks, Forresters for fear of tariffs. Never mind Outbacks are made in Indiana. ( Not the Crosstrex the crossover Subie. And smaller car. Part of that is no incentives on Crosstrex.)  

 

Also, in America, we don't have manpower to build stuff, Gen Z, Gen A, well, babies to man the plants in the future, are just not there. And as a former student of mine wrote me yesterday, he has a small business. Gen Z, those under 30 just don't want to work hard. And don't be telling me how hard your son " Little Johnny" works, there are always outliers. 

I'm going to tell you stuff you just don't want to do, and the average American, well, they are just not going to do it.....Literally, buy that shiny new object today, with huge interest rates. And wonder why they can never get ahead...Why they live paycheck to paycheck.....

Hang-on folks, I may get ugly here in the next few blogs. 

 

If You Want to Unfriend Me After This.....I Understand....Warning. I'm Going to Insult Everyone Reading.....

 It might be time to go. 

If it is, well, 14 years was a good run....

A minister at a mega-church got into trouble for saying that the newly selected Supt. of Schools in Deer Park ISD wasn't qualified to lead the district because she is " an alphabet person."  

And a bunch of people are jumping on the bandwagon because the lady saying she isn't qualified because she is an "alphabet person." 

Why now? The lady in question had been an administrator for Deer Park ISD for over a decade.

Why that particular sin? 

Why not people who are fornicators? Or divorced without reason? And I remember when being divorced was only for one reason. Maybe two....2000 years ago whipping the hell out of your spouse wasn't a biblical reason for divorce. But I don't think you need to stay with them, because next time, you may wind up at the undertakers., yet, there are ministers who think you should try and 'work it out.'  Literally ministers who think you should be able to " spank your spouse." ( It depends on the spanking.....You might both be into it. Not for disciplinary reasons....Then again, in the process, one of you might say, " I've been a bad girl.....or boy...." Not my thing, but if it's yours, go for it...) But beating your spouse? No.....Get the hell out of there....

Is it because about half the church is or has shacked up with someone else, or Saturday night, you " hooked up" with some nasty ass guy or girl in the backseat of your car, or do it behind the venue against the brick wall? Someone you'll never see again? Asking for forgiveness knowing good and well, next weekend, you're going to play " slap and tickle " with someone new.

Or divorced because you " were not happy?" 

Hell, it's the reason why half the people quit their jobs. Do you think I was always happy at Buna HS? Worse paying district in Region V Area? ( Seriously) Had to deal with teachers who I could not stand? They couldn't teach a dog to scratch a flea? ( And there were teachers I really like and call my friends to this day, who were brilliant, teachers and brainpower... Supt. of Schools who treated teachers like dirt, showed favoritism. Did experimental programs to show their next position what programs they implemented? And the teachers had to do that program knowing next year, it'll be a new superintendent and some silly/stupid program. Who hadn't taught in 20 years. ) 

And don't tell me " Not me."   You know good and well, there are people in the church doing stuff they shouldn't.

But the preacher goes after alphabet people because, well, they are an easy target....God forbid he preaches against heterosexual sins. Heck Jesus even went after heterosexual sin pretty hard.....

God forbid he talks about idolatry. And how many love that money, more than God and preach against it....Might hurt that offering this Sunday. And covet? Heck, most of American economics is based up folks needing the next iphone or a Coach purse, or a new Dodge Hellcat to show off because Johnny has one. 

And railer? Heck, it might be my worse sin?  

If you went after all the teachers involved in sins, especially those involved in those sins that Paul talks about....Well, good luck finding anyone to be administrators, teachers, whatever.....Are you going to fire everyone who got divorced? I can remember when Baptist preachers who divorced were disqualified, same with deacons. But apparently, we are short preachers and gotta take what we can get.) ( Going to get in trouble here.)

I don't know. If you're going after one group, go after them all. 

But, you got to keep that job. Preachers at some churches get a big paycheck....Really big...

I don't know, sometimes we need to go after everything, even stuff that is hard to speak against, and sometimes, there are things that happen for a purpose......Hosea married a woman of the evening, and scholars say two of the 3 kids Gomer ( the wife) had were probably not Hosea's. Hosea even had to pay to get her back at one point. Never mind she'd run off to commit adultery....

Might need pull that plank out of your own eye first....Lord knows I do. And I'm brave enough to tell y'all my faults....And sometimes it is difficult to do....

 

 

Buna Schools...I Get Into Trouble.....And You Never know....

 I am going to try and shorten this blog considerably. Espcially after yesterday's 3300 word blog/mess I wrote. I am going to omit several topics and may or may not revisit them at a future point in time....

So far, it seems to be realities quiet in the Buna ISD. 

My only complaint is that this week is Spring Break, the same week as UIL Academic Contest and while it may not seem like a big deal to you, it is often hard to get kids to skip days from the break to travel to Winnie for literally an all day event. The bus often leaves by 6AM and many of the contestants don't get home until , well, I've gotten in at 10PM before. Many times, parents have planned trips during the break and their kid has to travel with the family, this is especially true with family visiting family out of town during the break.  Most of the area schools have already had their break and they outvote those off this week for when district contest is held. 

And, it will hurt results, sorry, but it is. UIL Academics is not a class like other UIL events and grades for missing can't be held over the heads of those involved like in other UIL events which include an actual class. 

And it looks like it will happen again in the 25/26 school years......And believe it or not, their are actual parents who look at how involved and how much the district cares about academics. 

Other than that, I still hear about the clique in Buna and am already being asked about what district I would move to? 

And there is no-perfect district and each has its own political situation. But.....I'd look at Bridge City, LCM in Orange County. I'd considered Evadale. And I am holding hope the new superintendent is going to " clean up" many of the problems the district has, and a couple of the campuses I have hopes for. 

- I've also heard from so many in PMs concerning dating for Millennials and Gen Z in 2025. My Gen Z nephew has kept me updated and was laughing about one of his friend's stories concerning his sister. 

His friend said his sister had been approached by a guy, her age, she called, " handsome, dressed well, well spoken, and had asked her out to dinner." 

She was appalled. Actually shocked, and accepted. 

Afterwards, she panicked. Was the guy a serial killer? A rapist? Going to carry her off and sell her into slavery? 

And the thing is, she knew some of his friends. And they're good people. 

My nephew as I have told you said, " He wouldn't dare ask a girl, in person" out on a date....

All I could think was, it's how it used to be done. Yeah, guys, you get turned down. But now, my nephew said, the girl might go online and make fun of you for even asking. 

Dadgum. I was about to ask my now wife out, when she " beat me to the gun," and suggested we "go to Sonic for Dr Peppers."( Dr Pepper, the official drink of East Texas)  Not spending large sums of money as some now expect on a first date....The purpose of a first date folks is to get to know one another. 

But, more on this topic later. 

May tease you with my last blog I will write , someday when I shut the blog down, concerning the supernatural, and voodoo, and it scared the hell out of me....( You believe in God, Jesus, praying, etc....You better believe in the other....I'll tease you...." I walk into the house on business and there are 43 cat skulls on the wall." )

- From time to time I catch hell about us traveling......

We live a frugal life to do so. I am not in debt with a $100,000 truck. I drive a 15 year old Honda. Yes, we have a new Subaru, but we have paid it off, and may always drive a Subaru. The last one saved Deborah's life.  We don't have a big house, and the house we live in is actually too big for just Deborah and I.  We travel. Not thrilled about where we are going this time, but I'll go. I did look at the menus, and they were worth me going...

You live your life like you do. I go without certain things so I can go to Scotland/England. And the things I go without, I really do not need and the clothes I but, are all on sale or I buy from top shelf thrift stores nearly always associated with a mainline denominational church.  

So, if you want, I can say something about those of you with $1500 car notes....

-Finally, was told about a former student who now has an Onlyfans. 

I am sorry, but it upset me. I know it's your bidness, and the person who told me offered to pay their subscription fee, or whatever it is called. 

It is not her, and there are girls on OF having sex with hired " actors" who are saying that because this is acting, no emotional attachment, and this is the only place they've had sex, they are still " Virgins." 

I don't you to spend $3.99 for me to be able to see her butthole....Or screw two guys at once....

I'm sorry, It has just upset me. 

 

Dread, Dread, Dread.....

 Dread, Dread, Dread........

So, I was informed by the "person I sleep with" that I am going on a cruise later this Summer....

Kerry Don Thomas don't do no damn boats. 

I barely will get in a fishing boat in the Neches or Toledo Bend.  

And my favorite place in the world is on an island.....

But.....A damn boat.....

And I'll fly anyplace. 

Been across the Atlantic at least 12 times to Europe and the Middle East and back home. ( Heck, that included the Mediterranean. )

Been across the Pacific to East Asia. 

Been to islands in the Caribbean.  

Been across the Gulf of Alaska. 

And while the concept of being in an aluminum tube hurling across the sky at 39,000 feet throws fear into many people, I love it......I figure if I crash into sea, well, I was foreordained to go that way, and in truth, can't think of a cooler way to go....

Hell, I've seen both of the movies about the Titanic. That's the last way I want to go. ( BTW- Sorry ladies, the last Titanic was not about love, it was about adultery. Most romance moves are.....Bridges of Madison County? The English Patient? I can name about 60 movies....) 

Then the cruise is to Alaska.....

Many of you know, the last time we were in Alaska, my father passed away....And my 94 year old mother is still with us. 

Grandma( Mom) is doing well, still drives, but still, at 94, you never know....

That said, they do have " Formal Nights" and already looking at ordering myself a white dinner jacket. 

And the boat stops in Juneau, and I'm trying to see as many state capitol buildings as I can before I die.....There at pictures of me standing on the steps of capitol building(s) in both Montpelier, Vermont, and Olympia, Washington.....I've even sat in on the Louisiana House in session...Touched the bullet holes in the wall where Gov. Huey P. Long was assassinated by Dr. Carl Weiss.  

Oh well, I guess it is, what it is.....